Author: Mr Investor

What does Investing Mean, and Why Should You Do It?

This is an easy one.

‘What does it mean to invest?’. To invest is to commit money (or resource) in order to gain a financial reward or future advantage. Some examples of investing are; buying property, purchasing stocks or reading a book. All of these actions require money or resource i.e. time and energy and are conducted for some form of future return such as owning a home, financial profit or extra knowledge. The problem is we all have limited resources and thus must be efficient in how we spend them. The aim is to extract the most value you possibly can out of every pound or minute invested. Whilst I fully believe everyone should invest as much as they can into their passions, family and friends… these topics are far too complex for me! As a result, I will focus purely on how one should invest for financial reward.

Financial investing is the process of making your money make you money, or ‘putting your money to work’. However doing this is not easy or simple. In reality investing for the future is risky, complex and demanding. The future is not certain and nothing is guaranteed – although over the long term asset prices (houses and stocks) do tend to rise, short term shocks like the 2008-2009 recession can and do happen. Investing is also complex and requires education in order to ensure correct decisions are being made by investors and that investments can be monitored and understood going forwards. Above all, investing requires courage. Making a decision to put all of your hard-earned savings into an investment outside of your control requires enough courage to trust in what you are doing and requires the discipline to not panic when things inevitably go through a bumpy patch. Investing is not smooth sailing. If it was… everybody would be doing it… and if everyone was doing it, it wouldn’t be worth it!

You might currently be thinking that financial investing sounds like too much effort, and that it probably is not worth it. Allow me to prove to you that it is! If you are not investing you likely doing either one of two things, spending all your earnings, or saving as much of them as you can. It is relatively simple to explain the issues with living paycheck to paycheck – you will not be able to cope well with unexpected expenditures, you will have to put your life on hold if you lose your job and lastly, you will have nothing to live off for retirement. Now lets assume your a saver, which is a very good thing to be, you may be fine when unexpected bills come by, or when your temporarily out of work, and if you have saved very well you may even survive retirement. An investor is someone who can do all of that, and then some. The chart below shows the difference between someone who kept £10,000 in a savings account over the last 20 years versus someone who invested the same amount over the same time period.

Investing would have made your same £10k worth over double the initial amount, and +£12k more than if it was kept in a savings account over the same time period. Now does investing seem worth it?

To conclude: Investing means to commit money (or resource) in order to gain a financial reward or future advantage, and one should invest because the rewards can be far greater than the alternatives over time. 

So… You’re an Average Joe.

So… You’re an Average Joe and you’re looking to invest. So how do you do it?! Well, we have all been there. It is a confusing a difficult problem. Your parents are telling you to do one thing, your partner another, and your friends well… something completely different. And thats not to mention the rogue colleague who has been trying to persuade you to invest all your life savings in Cryptocurrencies either! You have tried to Google ‘How to invest’… but you ended up with more questions than answers. So what do you do next? Well, that is exactly what I am here for!

The purpose of this post blog is to walk you through the journey of becoming an investor. We start at the very beginning, with no prior investment knowledge, and conclude with you being an actual investor – in the real world! All the advice contained in Public Portfolio is completely independent. Examples will be practical and terminology kept to a minimum.

Lets begin…!

Step 1 – Escaping No Mans Land

You are unsure what investing actually means. You understand the concept and know you want to be an investor, but that is about it. You are not sure what your first step should be. Well… lets start from the beginning!

  • What does it mean to invest and why should you do it?
  • What are your investment goals & objectives? What is your risk tolerance?
  • What are the things I can invest in? How do they help me meet my goals and objectives?

So your sold on the idea of investing and have some idea of what kind of investor you want to be. You have a good understanding of what the major asset classes are and which ones suit you the most. What is next?

Step 2 – Learning Your Trade

The next step is to learn your trade. In this section we acquire the necessary skills to become an investor by exploring how things work in the real world. This is where it starts to get interesting…

  • What are your options?
  • How does investing work in reality?
  • Self-Invested ISA vs Managed ISA – which should you choose?

You now understand how you want to invest in practical terms. Lets make it happen.

Step 3 – Entering the Battle

This is where we open an account. Get your cheque book ready!

  • How to open an investment account
  • What to think about next

Congratulations – you have now graduated to an Above Average Joe! Your money is now working for you 24/7! You are earning whilst you eat, sleep and work. But it doesn’t end here…

What’s next?

If you decided to take the burden of investing on your own two shoulders, or are simply curious about learning more, then this next series is for you! We will explore all the complexities of running your own portfolio as an Above Average Joe.

Portfolio Construction: Part 3 – Correlation

So far in this ‘Portfolio Construction’ series we have introduced the idea of a portfolio, summarised how different assets classes behave and concluded that we are likely all owners of a multi-asset portfolio (Part 1). We then moved on to show how combining assets is beneficial to an investor by both increasing returns and reduce risk (Part 2). In this post we will talk through the underlying mechanics of how combining assets has a positive impact… correlation.

Lets start with some definitions and simple examples: Correlation – a relationship or connection between two or more things. Examples: sunny weather and ice cream sales, time slept and energy throughout the day. These examples both show positive correlation i.e. they both rise together. A negative correlation, when one thing goes up, the other goes down, is still a relationship and can be very strong one i.e. smoking and lung capacity, exercise and body fat (although some might not agree this has a strong correlation!). Finally, we also have a low/no correlation, mobile phone sales and rainfall… they will have no impact on one another. Correlations are measured mathematically on a scale of -1 to 1, 1 meaning a strong positive correlation, -1 a strong negative and 0 representing no correlation. You can see graphical examples of these below.

Illustrative Correlations with Trendline

Lets link all of this back to investing. When thinking about a portfolio, correlations are important because a portfolio of highly correlated assets would all do well together, or do poorly together. Most investors would rather have a smooth journey i.e. a portfolio that slowly climbs over time, than something that swings between making and losing you lots of money. 

Imagine you had all your savings in Marriott and Hilton, two luxury hotel companies, your portfolio would have performed like the below…

Marriott and Hilton

Cumulative performance of Marriott, Hilton and a 50/50 portfolio

You can see from the chart that the pattern between the two companies returns is almost identical, when one of these stocks performs well, so does the other, when one performs badly so does the other. Combining these two stocks, offers little difference in the observable pattern. Contrast this to the example we looked at in Building a Portfolio which you can see again below.

Opt Port

Cumulative performance of Microsoft, Ford and an Optimized Portfolio of both

As you can see, it is clear that the relationship between Marriott and Hilton is much closer than the relationship between Microsoft and Ford. This is reflected in the correlation numbers which are 0.73 and 0.4 for each pair, respectively.

By combining two things which are highly correlated you create a portfolio which is highly correlated to the original two things – the benefit of doing this is minimal. You can see by looking at the first chart you are better off having invested in just Marriott than buying Hilton or both. This is in contrast to Microsoft and Ford, where the combination was something different, and actually performed better than both the individual stocks. This was evidenced in the Sharpe Ratio which was 0.46 for Microsoft, 0.15 for Ford, and 0.49 for the combination. Marriott and Hilton have a Sharpe Ratio of 1.41 and 0.68 respectively. However when combining the two the Sharpe Ratio falls to 1.12 – lower than just holding Marriott.

OK… so why is this important to consider? When constructing a portfolio it is important for investors to consider their portfolio as a whole, and not each investment in isolation. If your best ideas happen to be 5 energy stocks… they might be great ideas on their own, and they might do very well for you… until the oil price crashes and they all come tumbling down at once. By looking at the correlation between the assets within a portfolio, investors can better avoid unknowingly putting all their eggs in one basket!

Portfolio Construction: Part 2 – Building a Portfolio

In Portfolio Construction: Part 1 – Combining Assets, we looked at a variety of ways in which groups of assets can be bundled together. We also looked at some of the major characteristics of these assets, and showed where they differ. In Where Should I Invest? we concluded that although stocks may offer the best reward over the long term, they are also extremely risky. To overcome this problem investors combine assets in a portfolio to maximize returns and reduce risk… lets look at how this works in reality.

Below you can see the result of investing £1000 in the Microsoft (MSFT) at the beginning of 2007. Two things are clear (1) you would have made a lot of money (£2724 of profit), (2) the returns were reasonably bumpy. As an investor you want to maximize the ratio of risk to return i.e. for each unit of risk, you want the highest possible return. This is measured by a simple calculation called the Sharpe Ratio = (Portfolio Return – Risk Free Rate) / Portfolio Risk . The Sharpe Ratio of Microsoft over this time period was 0.46.

msft1.jpeg

Cumulative Wealth Affect of Investing in Microsoft

Now lets look at an investment of £1000 into Ford (a less exciting business), also in the year 2007. In contrast to Microsoft the return on your initial investment would have been meaningfully lower (£1058 of profit), in addition, the risk is higher as you can see by the more volatile movements of the red line (F = Ford). This is reflected in the lower Sharpe Ratio of 0.15.

msft-ford.jpeg

Cumulative Wealth Affect of Investing in Microsoft & Ford

Looking at these two Sharpe Ratios (Microsoft = 0.46, Ford = 0.15) the obvious conclusion would be that the best possible choice would be to just invest in Microsoft and ignore Ford altogether… a better return and lower risk are the exact characteristics an investor should be looking for. This is true. If you had to pick between one or the other, than £1000 in Microsoft would be a better decision, but why not invest in both! A blended portfolio with both Microsoft and Ford would look like this…

Opt Port

Cumulative Wealth Affect of an Optimized Portfolio

Looking at the optimized portfolio (the green line) we can see that by combining the two stocks into a portfolio the return is similar to that of Microsoft – in fact its a little higher (£2852 profit)! Whilst the volatility has also reduced when compared to Microsoft, you can see this by looking at how the green line moves between 2010-2013. As you would have guessed, this means the optimized portfolio has a higher Sharpe Ratio, 0.49!!

What is the point of all this? This example is set out to clearly demonstrate the benefit of portfolio diversification. By combining a number of different assets an investor can not only achieve a higher level of return, they can also do this by taking less risk. In Part 3, I will explain more about how and why this happens.

What is a… Stock?

As part of the ‘What is a …’ series, I aim to provide some background on what I view as the 5 main asset classes for retail investors; Stocks & Shares, Fixed Income, Commodities, Property and Cash. I will explain in simple terms what each asset is and what their strengths and weaknesses are. I will use real world examples to help demonstrate this.

Stocks & Shares 

Stocks & Shares, or just stocks, or just shares… or equity… (different words for the same thing) are essentially little pieces of ownership of a company. Publicly traded companies are corporations which have sold a significant chunk of their shares to the public i.e. Apple, Tesco, British Airways. If you made a company and cut it into 100 pieces, you have a privately (not public!) owned company with 100 shares in total. Say you then sold 90 of those shares to friend, the company is still privately owned as no one in the public was able to buy any of your business. Now imagine, you sold those 90 shares at a public marketplace where anyone could buy them… you would then have a publicly traded company. Either way, the pieces you cut the company into are shares. In the real financial world these marketplaces are called an exchange.

Logos for large corporations

An example of publicly listed companies.

Shares of publicly listed companies can be traded on exchanges, like the London Stock Exchange.

Why Sell Shares?

You sell shares in order to raise money. Here is an example…imagine you had an idea for a great new toy. Lets say you managed to make 100 toys with the money you have. You own 100% of the business. You can either try and sell some of the 100 and then use the cash to make more, and keep churning over and over and over. Or you could sell 10% of your company to the public, (hopefully for a large amount of money if your toys are any good…) and then use those funds to make 1,000 toys – enabling your business to become profitable and competitive more quickly. This idea of selling small parts of your business to make it something bigger, is the fundamental reason companies sell their shares to the public.

Why Buy Shares

The reason you, as an investor, are willing to pay for cash for shares in a company is because you believe the value of the shares will be worth more in the future than they are now. A share of Apple Inc. when the company went public in 1980 was $22, those same shares are now worth over $10,000. However as with all things investing, nothing is for certain. The price of the shares you buy may go up or down over time – this is the risk of buying shares. If you choose the right companies, you can make a significant return, but getting it wrong can leave you with next to nothing.

Portfolio Construction: Part 1 – Combining Assets

As mentioned in ‘Where Should I Invest?‘ a portfolio is simply a combination of assets. This can be a combination of the same type of asset i.e. 5 stocks, or a multi-asset portfolio i.e. 3 stocks, 2 bonds, and 1 property. These assets can be weighted/combined in a number of ways (see below).

An illustration of an equally weighted stock portfolio and unequally weighted multi-asset portfolio.

Equal weight is an easy to understand method where each asset is held in proportion to the others. More complex weighting methods exist, such as market-cap weighted (FTSE 100), price weighted (Dow Jones). However, the most interesting weighting schemes involve optimisation i.e. building a risk-adjusted portfolio (we will cover this in Portfolio Construction: Part 2).

As a Joe Public investor, you are likely to have an unequal weight, multi-asset portfolio. Your savings are often in cash (hopefully not…’Participation is Key’.), your pension is typically a combination of equities and bonds and you are likely have invested in residential property via a mortgage. As a result, it is extremely beneficial to understand the characteristics of a multi-asset portfolio… after all, you have one!

You need not worry… there are good reasons as to why investors construct multi-asset portfolios. In ‘Where Should I Invest?’ we compared only the risk/return relationship between major asset classes – there are a number of other elements investors may be interested in controlling. By combing assets to their individual needs every investor is able to limit their exposure to undesirable characteristics. The most popular attributes are summarised below;

Table summarising key characteristics of major asset classes.

Just as an example… the Average Joe holds cash because it allows them to be ‘liquid’ (have physical money i.e. spending money, on demand), have a company pension plan which is loaded up with equities (because they hope for long term capital growth) and if they are lucky enough they let residential property as they expect to benefit from the monthly income and long term price appreciation. As you can see from the chart above, these three assets all behave quite differently and as a result they create a very popular and effective portfolio.

Participation is Key

‘You have to be in it to win it’. A crude but very relevant adage for how an investor should think.

The benefits of participation can be made clear with a simple, real world, example of how savings have typically performed versus equities. I use this example because most people that do not ‘participate’ are keeping all their savings in cash at the bank. It’s an easy thing to do… you are paid in cash, your outgoings are in cash, you simply require cash. This is perfectly acceptable and every portfolio should consist of some – but holding 100% of your savings in cash at the bank is costing you money!

Lets assume 5 years ago you had saved £50,000 and have not added a penny since. All that dough in a high interest savings account* would have approximately earned you £3,774… in total. That’s a meagre £755 a year for having £50,000 in savings. If you had instead invested your £50,000 into stocks, say the FTSE 100, you would have made more than £755 in your first year. In fact, the first 12 months (running from September to August 2013) would have made you £6,140! – over 1.5x what you would have made from saving cash for the last 5 years!! In total your 50k would have grown to £65,049 bringing you much closer to meeting your long-term investment objectives, whatever they may be.

This isn’t a new or unusual phenomenon. Equity markets offer a greater return (premium) over cash but at a greater risk. The below chart illustrates the example we have just walked through. As you can see market participation (investing) is not all smooth sailing… but with a long time horizon it is often worth it.

*I assumed all savings were held in a number of leading Cash ISA’s over the entire period. Most savers to not take advantage of Cash ISA’s and instead keep their savings in low interest current accounts. These savers would have experienced even lower cash returns than I have used in my example.

Where Should I Invest?

During ‘ISA is King!’ I spoke about the variety of different ways in which members of Joe Public can invest. I concluded that in most cases the average investor should make use of their ISA because they are very easy to set-up, low-cost and are tax-efficient. However, an ISA is just a tax wrapper, it is not an investment of any kind. To take advantage of an ISA you must first invest.

Lets start by considering your options;

These assets all behave in different ways and so depending on your objectives you may want to invest in one over the other. Two simple and important characteristics to considers are risk and returns. As an investor you want to invest in an asset which gives you the highest possible return for the lowest amount of risk. Here is how these assets typically stack up.

A low risk individual would be interested in Cash, however as you can see, leaving your money in cash is not going to make you rich. An investor who is more willing to take risks to make some dough might consider Stocks and Shares (Equity) e.g. Apple Inc.

Over the long run, investing in Stocks and Shares is the best way to grow your investments and make £££. However, by combining a few of the assets above – i.e. creating a portfolio – an efficient trade-off between risk and return can be reached. By combining assets in a particular way, every investor can create a portfolio which suits their personal investment objectives.

In future I will detail the process of effectively combining assets into a portfolio – ‘Portfolio Construction’.

ISA is King!

As retail investors our investible universe is limited. The most attractive forms of investing for us are; ISA, pension, property, spread betting/CFDs, and entrepreneurial activity. There are more abstract views I could take such as education (‘investing’ in yourself), or gambling (using arbitrage betting strategies) – I will ignore these for now.

OK so with this in mind… I will (and I think you should) focus on investing in an ISA.

Firstly, what is an ISA? An ISA is a tax-free wrapper courtesy of the government. You can make investments inside an ISA, or outside an ISA. The only difference is that investments made inside an ISA are perpetually isolated from tax. To stop people putting all of their savings away in this tax free wrapper, you are capped at £20k annually. To invest ‘in’ an ISA you simply open an account with one of the many large and reputable ISA account providers.

Why?

  1. Investing in a an ISA is near cost-less and setting one up can be done in a day or less
  2. Lower risk than other investments which rely on borrowing money (such as buying a property with a mortgage)
  3. Your much more likely to make money by investing in an ISA than leaving your cash in a savings account
  4. Investments in an ISA are tax free. Literally… ZERO tax!

The benefit of not paying tax on investment gains is meaningful. Here’s an example below.

 

Note: This assumes an investor utilises their full ISA allowance every year which is currently £20,000.

After Year 5 the benefit is over £1,000 and by Year 10 you would have saved over £20,000 on your tax bill. As you’ll notice by looking at the ‘ISA Benefit’ column, the benefit rises every year and for long term investors this could grow to be even more substantial. The example above is reasonably conservative too… higher return assumptions would have magnified the benefit from having invested in an ISA. A portfolio with an expected capital gain of 10% would be £36,000 better off after 10 years!! It is also worth remembering that tax laws are subject to change and could be even higher in future. Any money locked away in an ISA is always isolated from tax.

Finally, and most importantly, an ISA is free and easy to set-up. The cost is zero and the benefit is £££! Regardless of what your savings goals may be, an ISA can help you reach them quicker… So, what are you waiting for?!

What Type of Investor are You?

Very broadly speaking, there are two main types of investors; institutional and retail.

  • Institutional investors are sophisticated entities with a high number of assets (millions to billions), dedicated investment teams, state of the art investment tools and access to the latest research (i.e. Bloomberg).
  • Retail investors are poorer, less sophisticated and resource constrained. We are retail investors.

You might think from reading this that Institutional > Retail and that retail investors would simply not be able to compete for ‘alpha’ – this is not the case. Institutional investors are slow (reaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaalllllly slow) and often have multiple decision makers with misaligned incentives. They are constrained in how they can invest, where they can invest, the stocks they can invest in. Complex objectives may force them into making decisions that are not return maximising… Us retail folk are nimble, unconstrained and do not have to justify our decisions to anyone. Freedom! It is this freedom that gives us our edge.

Public Portfolio was established to bridge the gap between retail and institutional investors. I aim to show you, using our limited resources, how to generate a superior portfolio using public market investments only.